Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 1.550382 1.613397 1.678852 1.752161 1.832276 1.917518 2.015533
2025-12-21 1.463178 1.545353 1.633388 1.735396 1.851230 1.979789 2.134875
2025-12-28 1.420295 1.517685 1.624633 1.752082 1.901619 2.073917 2.291223
2026-01-04 1.391962 1.502285 1.626050 1.777247 1.960021 2.178185 2.465652
2026-01-11 1.352169 1.470393 1.605210 1.773141 1.981060 2.236596 2.586217
2026-01-18 1.321601 1.446939 1.592003 1.775970 2.008944 2.303494 2.721998
2026-01-25 1.277704 1.405387 1.554680 1.746399 1.993122 2.311540 2.776953
2026-02-01 1.247915 1.379222 1.534390 1.736298 2.000629 2.349512 2.875885
2026-02-08 1.219453 1.353370 1.513091 1.723351 2.002866 2.379406 2.964643
2026-02-15 1.193039 1.328948 1.492387 1.709808 2.002922 2.405366 3.048890
2026-02-22 1.176794 1.316323 1.485693 1.713727 2.026199 2.464998 3.191383
2026-03-01 1.146633 1.285459 1.454828 1.684355 2.001706 2.453007 3.215059
2026-03-08 1.125509 1.265869 1.438369 1.674386 2.005064 2.484282 3.318475
2026-03-15 1.103392 1.244354 1.418662 1.659089 1.999781 2.501674 3.399350
2026-03-22 1.095538 1.240553 1.421549 1.674310 2.038828 2.589921 3.620182
2026-03-29 1.091326 1.241136 1.429981 1.697243 2.090159 2.701716 3.905827
2026-04-05 1.076771 1.227953 1.419737 1.693502 2.101077 2.747905 4.068191
2026-04-12 1.065455 1.218616 1.414233 1.696078 2.121495 2.811410 4.279343
2026-04-19 1.043433 1.194829 1.388720 1.669125 2.094746 2.791185 4.299289
2026-04-26 1.029042 1.180712 1.375860 1.659909 2.095257 2.818827 4.435725
2026-05-03 1.014319 1.165836 1.361575 1.648087 2.090967 2.837361 4.553896
2026-05-10 1.000004 1.151203 1.347255 1.635714 2.085138 2.852510 4.666793
2026-05-17 0.992073 1.144806 1.343958 1.639296 2.105054 2.916667 4.922958